The passenger aviation industry has had a rocky start to 2024, thanks in large part to Boeing’s quality control woes.
But even as safety concerns drive the day-to-day conversation among passengers and regulators, industry pros are looking ahead to a more hopeful — and, hopefully, less vertigo-inducing — future.
That future is almost here, and it looks bright. These six emerging aviation trends could change how we get around in the air for good, sooner than we think.
1. Electrification for Short-Range Flights
Aviation is responsible for 2% to 3% of global carbon emissions. Its share is likely to rise in the coming decades as more people take to the skies.
Unless it doesn’t. Right now, many scheduled and private flights travel less than 300 miles. While trains and private cars can replace some of that load, flying is still fastest. Which is why it’s so exciting that companies like Joby Aviation — backed by tech visionaries like Sky Dayton — are working to electrify short-range air travel.
In the near future, small electric aircraft could stand in for today’s kerosene-powered planes while opening up an entirely new and sustainable air taxi industry.
2. Vertical Takeoff and Landing for Smaller Craft
Joby’s (and others’) electric planes take off and land vertically, meaning they can use helipads and other space-constrained port facilities without long runways. Further improvements to the technology could open up a longstanding dream of aviation futurists: literal flying cars.
3. Hydrogen Power for Medium-Range Travel
Batteries are not as energy-dense as liquid jet fuel. They may never be. So while electrification makes sense for short-range travel, another low- or no-carbon solution is needed for longer flights.
Enter hydrogen. Aviation startups like ZeroAvia are doing their best to build hydrogen-powered planes from the airframe up — and totally reimagining the flying experience in the process. Today, hydrogen production is a dirty business, but in the future it could be made with clean-powered electrolyzers, all but eliminating medium-range air travel’s carbon footprint.
4. Sustainable Aviation Fuel for Longer-Range Flights
Even hydrogen lacks the punch to power long-haul flights. To cross continents or oceans, something like jet fuel may always be needed. But how that fuel is made is very important indeed.
Sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, takes regenerative feedstocks like wood pulp or organic waste and turns it into a product that’s chemically identical to fossil jet fuel — except for the carbon emissions. It’s in short supply today, but that could change soon enough.
5. Next-Generation Supersonics for Transoceanic Journeys
Enough about low-carbon flight. Not that it’s not super-important, just that there’s other stuff going on in the wide world of aviation innovation.
Another game-changer for aviation could be a blast from the past: supersonic planes. Next-generation supersonics could be quieter and even faster than the infamous Concorde, which proved too noisy and expensive to operate sustainably. New York to London in 90 minutes? Let’s talk in 2040.
6. Autonomous Cargo Planes for a Just-in-Time World
Tesla is building an autonomous long-haul truck. Why can’t Boeing — or, more likely, a startup most people haven’t heard of yet — build an autonomous cargo plane?
The work is happening as we speak. Despite many technical hurdles yet to be overcome, the business case for pilotless “middle mile” delivery couldn’t be clearer.
Flying Into the Future
It’s difficult to believe that the first powered flight took place just over 120 years ago. In the 60 years after the Wright Brothers took off, humanity developed planes capable of crossing oceans, aircraft that could breach the sound barrier, and spacecraft that could outmuscle Earth’s gravitational field.
What will the next 60 years hold? No one knows for sure. But it’s safe to assume that these six technologies will play a big role in tomorrow’s aviation industry.
